Straight up
who wins the game
top 5
13-286.7%
every pick
27-20-157.4%
no break-even line: a pick’em pool is won against other entrants · +2.8σ from a coin flip
Winner Winner Chicken Dinner
Scorecard
live record 48 picks across 10 slates · built Oct 13, 8:00 AM Eastern
How the picks did
Top five means the five highest-confidence picks of a real slate, chosen before kickoff, and only picks clearing 60%. Days with fewer than six games contribute none, because there is nothing to choose. Every pick is graded at the number it was recorded at, never at a number found later.
Against the spread
at the number on record
top 5
6-7-246.2%
every pick
26-19-357.8%
break-even at -110 is 52.4% · -0.3σ from a coin flip
Over / under
at the number on record
top 5
5-8-238.5%
every pick
17-24-741.5%
break-even at -110 is 52.4% · -0.8σ from a coin flip
+29.2 points — the top five beat the full slate by this
much straight up (86.7% against 57.4%). That gap is the
whole case for ranking: if it were zero, the confidence number would be
decoration.
Said versus did
A confidence number is a promise. This checks it. The last column is how far off the promise was, in points.
| board said | picks | average claim | actually won | off by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50%–60% | 13 | 58% | 46% | -11.7 |
| 60%–70% | 19 | 63% | 47% | -16.0 |
| 70%–80% | 12 | 75% | 75% | -0.3 |
| 80%–100% | 3 | 84% | 100% | +16.5 |
Early against game day
The same games, picked twice: once at least two days ahead, once on game morning. Each is graded at its own number. These are separate records and are never added together, and only games both picked and both have a final for are counted: 0 so far, of 14 frozen early.
| frozen early | frozen game day | |
|---|---|---|
| Straight up | — | — |
| Against the spread | — | — |
| Over / under | — | — |
Slate by slate
Headline picks only. A day with fewer than six games contributes none: thirty of the 2025 season’s fifty-seven game days held a single game, and on a one-game Monday a “top five” is not a selection, it is the only game there was. Those days are greyed out here and still counted under every pick.
| date | games | picked | straight up | spread | over / under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-10-11 | 13 | 5 | 5–0 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 2026-10-08 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-10-05 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-10-04 | 14 | 5 | 4–1 | 2–2 | 0–4 |
| 2026-10-01 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-28 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-27 | 14 | 5 | 4–1 | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| 2026-09-24 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-21 | 1 | — | — | — | — |